Current Brazilian president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva has been re-elected following presidential elections on Sunday 25 October, winning against Flávio Bolsonaro with 52% of the votes. After ending the first round of voting in second place behind Flávio, Lula gained an extra 10.3 million votes in the second round. That makes it the first time a candidate has won the presidential elections after losing in the first round.
This turnaround follows three weeks of protests across Brazil, where millions of students and workers took to the streets in what Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) named ‘demonstrations for democracy’. The demonstrations in over 70 cities across the country had workers and young people standing up to the threats of Flávio Bolsonaro’s attacks on workers, his ties to organised crime, and his open support for the military dictatorship which ended in 1989.
Flávio was not initially seen as the ideal candidate by the right-wing parties to stand in the elections. Since the start of his candidature, there were divisions in Flávio’s Liberal Party (PL) but eventually Flávio stepped up as the candidate to continue the legacy of his father Jair Bolsonaro, currently serving a 27-year sentence for planning a military coup. Flávio himself is currently being investigated by the Supreme Court for money laundering and involvement in a banking scandal, in which he asked jailed CEO of Banco Master, Daniel Vorcaro, for 134 million Brazilian reais.
Both Lula’s Workers’ Party and Flávio’s Liberal Party have been involved in recent corruption scandals, creating distrust amongst the electorate. The defeat of Bolsonaro in the second round of elections came with the highest voter turnout in 20 years, whereas the first round of elections had the lowest voter turnout since 1989. The increased number of voters following the first round shows the initial reluctance of the Brazilian population, feeling disillusioned and not represented by any of the candidates. As no candidate put forward a real alternative for workers, the distrust towards the political establishment at first translated into votes for Flávio, with people feeling that the past four years of Lula in government has not brought sufficient improvements to their lives. However, leading up to elections, Flávio’s ties to Vorcaro’s banking fraud became further exposed. Meanwhile, Lula agreed to release his bank, tax, and telephone records to the public, undermining PL’s election campaign based on saving Brazil from Lula’s corruption and lies.
In his winning speech, Lula stated that “Brazil will not accept being anyone’s backyard”. This follows accusations that social media company Meta had been interfering in the elections by bringing down Lula’s social media campaign, while boosting posts made by Bolsonaro. These accusations led to more anger towards the United States and Trump’s friendly relationship with the Bolsonaro family. Since Trump set 50% tariffs on Brazilian products last year, Lula has maintained his stance against American involvement in Brazil’s economy and politics. Therefore, Lula’s win has been framed as a fight for independence from interference by the United States and a win for democracy.
A workers’ government?
Stopping a Bolsonaro presidency that pledged to slash spending by 200 billion reais is a win for the Brazilian working class, but that does not mean Lula’s government will be a workers’ government. Reforms have been won in Lula’s presidency under pressure from the workers’ movements, including recently the end of the six-day working week and a reduction to a 40-hour working week. But small reforms will not be enough to answer the needs of the millions of workers who voted Lula in. Despite coming into politics as a trade union leader, all his three terms as president have been characterised by attempts to conciliate between the working class and the capitalist market’s interests. His vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin, is a right-wing politician, whose role has been seen as uniting both the left and right against the threats of Bolsonarism. Alckmin’s belief in a ‘strong’ fiscal policy is an indication that Lula’s fourth term will be one of more cuts to reduce government spending. Already in the days following the election financial markets are piling on their pressure demanding austerity cuts.
Lula’s reforms will also be challenged by Brazil’s Congress. While PL did not succeed in electing its presidential candidate, it made the biggest electoral gains, winning 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies compared to PT’s 70. The Senate now also has a right-wing majority, meaning it will do everything it can to oppose and clamp down on any laws Lula’s administration tries to pass. However, this opposition cannot be used as an excuse to uncritically support Lula’s administration as it gives in to the pressures of the markets and big business.
Ultimately, the biggest pressure Lula will face will be from the working class who voted for him in hopes he would ‘save’ Brazil from Bolsonarism. Yet his pro-capitalist government will not be able to save workers from the massive levels of inequality in the country. It will also not save Brazil from future right-wing governments.
Lula’s fourth presidency will be his last, after running in seven out of the ten presidential elections since direct voting was introduced 1989. This has created a narrative that Lula is the only candidate capable of preventing the growth of the far-right in Brazil, with left-wing parties such as PSOL not standing a candidate in the elections to unite the fight against Bolsonarism. The next four years where capitalist interests are put above the needs of workers will not prevent the growth of the right, it will increase it. The 48% vote won by Bolsonaro reveals the deep polarisation that exists in Brazil which will deepen in the coming months and years. Without responding to the high cost of living facing the Brazilian population, frustrated voters might again look for an alternative in right-populist politicians. Only building a working-class alternative with a socialist programme that fights for secure jobs, and better living conditions can cut across the support for right-wing populist parties in Brazil.