The Results
The local election concluded on 6 May in Sri Lanka marks the beginning of a loss of support for the National People’s Power / Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (NPP / JVP) (formally a “leftist” coalition) government. Although the NPP won a majority of seats, their vote count reduced significantly compared to the parliamentary general election last November. The turnout is reported to be just under 62%, down by 7% compared to the general election.
The NPP won 43.26% of the votes, a reduction of about 20 percentage points in six months. Among the 8,792 seats, the NPP gained 3,926 seats. However, they were only able to take full control of 133 councils (out of 339 local authorities). They may have to seek alliances to form an authority in the rest of the areas where they had a majority. This election was held after seven years of repeated postponement by the previous government, which feared losing, and it once again showed how traditional parties no longer hold much weight in society.
The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), led by the notorious Rajapaksa family that was ousted by the Aragalaya mass movement in 2022, gained back some supporters who had swung to the NPP in the last election. With 9.17% of the vote, winning 742 seats, it is still a poor showing for the party that once boasted it would rule Sri Lanka forever. The party that came in second, with just 21.7% of the vote and 1,767 seats, the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), managed to hold some of the traditional United National Pary-supporting areas. The traditional capitalist party UNP managed to win around 4.7% of the vote, securing 381 seats. Among other small parties, it is noticeable that Dilip Jayaweera’s newly formed party, Mawbima Janatha Pakshaya (MJP), won 1.3% of the vote. Jayaweera is a media mogul and former campaigner for Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fell out with them and set up a party with some populist demands.
The ruling NPP also suffered a loss of support in the North and East, where Tamil-speaking people are in the majority. Tamil nationalist parties dominated and together won a significant majority in the Tamil areas. The main Tamil party, ITAK, won 377 seats and control of 37 councils. The most radical among them, often seen as a “progressive nationalist” party, the TNPF, made significant gains (101 seats) in the north.
Declining Support for NPP/JVP
What the NPP achieved in the 2024 parliamentary election is unprecedented in Sri Lanka’s political history. Not only did they win an outright majority (159 seats in the 225-seat parliament) with 66.8% of the vote, but they also garnered support from all parts of the country, simultaneously decimating established parties. The Rajapaksa-led SLPP won just one seat, with another allocated from the national list, and the traditional capitalist UNP managed only one seat. In terms of votes, Anura’s presidential victory was comparable to the landslide win by Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the 2020 parliamentary election, where the SLPP also secured 6.8 million votes, nearly the same as the NPP in 2024. However, the NPP/JVP victory carried immense hope and aspirations for a better future, reflecting the anger and ambitions of the Aragalaya movement.
Despite the initial euphoria, it soon became clear that the new government was not willing to reverse any policies of previous right-wing governments. They were quick to express that they posed no challenge to the interests of capital, nor to Indian or Western interests, reassuring that they were not a threat to capitalism. To date, only superficial gestures have been made to tackle corruption. The NPP’s victory hinged on the mass movement’s main slogans of ousting corrupt politicians and confiscating stolen wealth. Yet little has been done to bring justice or challenge the criminal political elite. None of the demands from the movement’s Galle Face declaration have been respected or delivered. The government, including some MPs claiming to be Marxists and radicals, remains silent on repealing the notorious Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA), which is still used against political opponents.
Defenders of the government highlight the latest budget, which announced salary increases for public and private sector workers, among other allocations. However, every policy in the budget continues the former president Ranil’s proposals, aligning with IMF demands such as balancing budgets by increasing tax revenue and reducing corporate taxes. Not surprisingly, the IMF expressed full satisfaction, extending its fund facility, and its Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva praised President AKD and the budget. The day after the local elections, the World Bank approved a one billion dollar loan. While tax cuts for the rich took immediate effect, the supposed salary increase will roll out over several years, meaning workers will see little improvement in pay or living conditions. Additionally, the government faces pressure from the IMF to raise prices, which could further deteriorate living conditions.
Even hardcore JVP members and supporters were shocked at how the government eagerly met all of India’s demands, treating Modi like a hero. Modi’s visit on 6 April was hailed as a “success” by the government, despite withholding complete information about agreements signed. Information released through Indian media revealed that President Anura (AKD) agreed to continue all agreements from the previous government, including resource and land exploitation in the East and South. While serving Indian capitalist interests, the JVP still at times goes back to old rhetoric. Within a month, at the JVP’s May Day rally, speakers levelled rhetoric against Modi and India. In the same rally, AKD warned unions against taking strike actions and dismissed their demands as “petty issues.”
The low turnout and significant reduction in votes for the NPP indicate that sections of the population are disillusioned and turning away. Although some argued this government should be given time to deliver, their inaction on public demands suggests time is running out. The Rajapaksa family and other capitalist forces are poised to exploit this gap to stage a comeback.
Tamil Vote
In the North and East, this election highlighted a significant loss of support for the NPP/JVP, which had enjoyed substantial backing during the general election. The hope that had arisen among the Tamil and Muslim populations—that they might finally see improvements in their lives and justice delivered for the crimes of the Rajapaksa family—diminished rapidly. Despite widespread evidence emerging about the involvement of sections of the government forces under the Rajapaksa family in the 2019 Easter bombing attack, no one has been brought to justice. The re-arrest of Vinayagamoorthy, alias Pillaiyan, a pro-Rajapaksa Tamil leader from the East, was seen by some as merely an election stunt, as he might be released soon after the election.
To cover up their inaction and halt further investigations, some Western governments, such as the US, UK, and Canada, recently issued full travel bans for four individuals linked to the Sri Lankan military who are accused of committing war crimes. The AKD government has completely ignored these actions and continues to protect these criminals and others known to have committed heinous crimes during the 2009 war.
Apart from promising to rebuild a small bridge and open a very small-scale factory, no substantial economic or development plans for the North and East have been announced. Additionally, the intimidation and arrest of young activists persist. Whenever AKD spoke in the North, he emphasized national unity and warned about facing the full force of the law for anyone attempting to disrupt this unity—a united Sri Lanka. Since AKD’s election as president, more than 10 activists have been arrested on suspicion of involvement in Tamil nationalist activities. Over 60 people have been investigated and questioned by the secret service for the same reasons, and several journalists’ homes have been visited, intensifying the climate of fear and restriction of freedom of speech, particularly in the North.
Following the significant breakthrough in the North with the victory of three MPs, many leading JVP activists declared that the Tamil national question is no longer an issue, suggesting that Tamils are only concerned with economic matters. They conducted targeted propaganda in areas considered strongholds of Tamil nationalism, such as Velvettiturai, the birthplace of LTTE leader Prabhakaran, and Vaddukoddai, where the 1976 VKR resolution calling for the creation of an independent Tamil Eelam was supported by all Tamil parties. This gross misunderstanding of history and make up of these areas, only provided point-scoring opportunities for them in the South. The NPP claimed they would win in all local authorities and ran a campaign mirroring tactics used by the Rajapaksa and paramilitary forces linked to the military, involving financial inducements, transporting attendees to meetings, and violating numerous election laws, including widespread postering, which was restricted for other parties. Some observers noted that the NPP/JVP spent substantial sums on propaganda in the North during this election. As election day approached and they realized they might not achieve the desired outcome, they resorted to opportunistic campaigning, claiming support for Tamil national demands and releasing a Tamil song suggesting they would erect a bronze statue of LTTE leader Prabhakaran. The President and Prime Minister visited all districts for meetings, and over ten ministers campaigned vigorously for the NPP. AKD was at times portrayed as a “Sinhala Prabhakaran.” Despite these efforts and expenses, the NPP failed to secure a majority in any local authorities. In the Velvettiturai urban council, a JVP-targeted area for political gains, 7 out of 9 seats were won by the TNPF, a progressive Tamil nationalist party.
Following the election results, many JVP leaders once again criticized Tamil voters. Bimal Ratnayake, a JVP politburo member perceived as managing affairs in the North, claimed that Tamil parties bought votes with alcohol. The NPP/JVP, presenting itself as anti-corruption and against the Rajapaksa legacy, as well as a past participant in armed struggle, had garnered some sympathy among Tamil sections who expected them to meet at least some demands. There was hope that the JVP might understand their pain. However, the realization that nothing had changed shattered these hopes, as reflected in the local election results.
Class Action and Mass Struggle Need to be Built
To maintain their hold on power, the NPP/JVP government may offer some concessions. However, it is increasingly clear they are determined to be the best servants for the capitalist class. Rejecting the idea of breaking with capitalism, establishing a “democratic revolution” (historically the Menshevik/Stalinist ‘stagist’ justification for collaboration with local bourgeois) and preserving the “unitary state” have been their main preoccupations.
Making deals with China, India, and the West—essentially continuing the policies of past capitalist governments—is all the NPP/JVP has accomplished so far. The JVP once criticized such policies as “selling the country.” Now, they present them as the only viable path. The Sri Lankan economy has not recovered. Without handouts and loans, Sri Lanka will once again face bankruptcy. The notion that the Sri Lankan export and tourism industry will suddenly boom and deliver miraculous growth is a fallacy. Sri Lanka remains a weak, dependent economy, continually propped up by handouts and loans. A “sovereign budget” is improbable under these circumstances. Unless solutions are sought outside the framework of capitalism, workers, peasants, youth, and all oppressed sections will continue to suffer and bear the brunt of these policies.
It is understandable that some trade unions, activists, and sections of the masses wanted to “give the NPP a chance.” However, the JVP-led government is heading in the opposite direction of what the masses desire. They are even prepared to use all powers at their disposal to enforce these capitalist policies. Trade unions should step forward, articulate their demands, form joint committees, and prepare to take action to win those demands. The JVP scandalously claims that there is no need for union or mass action simply because “they are now in power.” Some are discussing a “China model”—implying undemocratic one-party rule allied with capitalism. When the NPP government breaks with popular aspirations, we must re-mobilize and help to organise the masses for struggle. In its absence, reactionary forces will seek to regain their base.
The United Socialist Party (CWI in Sri Lanka) has been campaigning to end the attack on living conditions, refuse to repay all debts, abolish the PTA, and implement pro-worker policies, including massive investment in key sectors. The USP did not stand in this election but has called for trade unionists and all activists to unite and form a democratically organized mass platform of struggle, potentially leading to a viable electoral alternative. The Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) participated in the election through an electoral coalition formed with a few other small parties, winning 16 seats, a significant breakthrough. This also demonstrates how an alternative electoral platform can be built—not merely through the unification of small left parties, but by involving the broader working class and all sections of oppressed masses. This can be a base for campaigning activity. However for lasting success this requires a clear class program- a socialist program – that can unite all those in struggle. A democratically organized platform of struggle, with such a program, is the only force that can bring about real change, a government truly based on a mass movement or working people, peasants and youth, that moves society forward from the capitalist nightmare.