The devastating war launched by the Netanyahu and Trump regimes continues to increasingly devastate Iran, Lebanon, the Gulf States, the world economy, and world relations. It is now also provoking turmoil in the domestic social and political situation in many countries, not least in the USA.
Punch-drunk and delirious with his “successful” kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro, Trump had the delusion that he could ratchet up another “victory” in Iran. Like an addict high on drugs, Trump fanaticized toppling the regime simply through a devastating ‘shock and awe’ bombing raid.
More than a month into this war, thousands of deaths later, reality hit Trump in the face. Iran, and the reactionary theocratic regime that rules it, is not Venezuela. The Iranian regime, with a powerful military force, concentrated in the IRGC, with a social base, despite massive opposition to it has hit back both militarily and economically, crucially by shutting the Straight of Hormuz thereby choking off crucial oil, gas, fertilizers and other materials crucial for the world economy. Market speculation is now rife in all capitalist economies, and by some in the US close to the Trump gang, as the corporate gangsters aim to profit from the crisis.
The Iranian regime, as serious capitalist strategists feared, launched its most powerful weapon – its geographical grip on the crucial Strait of Hormuz. The world economy is now threatened with recession and, if there is a financial crisis, possibly depression. The consequences of these events are impacting on the domestic political and social situation in every country. A truly global crisis is unfolding.
Now Trump, forced into a corner, is desperately lashing out, as he is confronted with the fact that at this stage of the conflict the Iranian regime, despite damage, has the upper hand. The effect of aerial bombardment conducted so far has probably reached its limit despite Trump claiming that there are potentially 1,000s more targets in Iran. Trump has therefore reached a crossroads as his original schema lies in tatters. Either cut and run or declare a “victory” or escalate are the choices he has. Should he withdraw, leaving a weakened Iranian regime in power the entire region will be plunged into even greater instability and potential conflicts. The personal standing of Trump and his regime would suffer a humiliating blow; already his many contradictory statements have re-enforced the TACO jibe, ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’. The prestige of US imperialism globally would be even further damaged than it has already been.
Limits of US imperialism
Despite its massive fire power, this war has already sharply revealed the limits of US imperialism. It would emerge from this crisis further weakened globally. Should Trump take the path of pausing the US offensive, which is possible, but not the most likely, it can open a division or even a rupture between him and Netanyahu. Their interests, although coinciding, are not exactly the same.
The alternative, a bloody escalation, through the “obliteration” of Iranian oil, gas, power, water and other facilities, and would have long lasting and devastating consequences. It would inevitably lead to Iranian retaliation, in kind, hitting crucial facilities in the Gulf States. As Trump continues to increase the deployment of naval forces and thousands more troops to the area he is threatening a land intervention, putting boots on the ground to possibly seize Kharg Island and/or other Iranian targets.
This, together with the threat to somehow “take control” of the Strait of Hormuz would be a brutal and uncertain intervention. Even if US forces took any of these, they would be involved in a battle to hold any of the territory seized. Inevitably this would bog down US forces in a limited ground war. Apart from the horrific consequences in Iran and the whole region, such a direction of the war would have explosive political consequences in the US, where for the first time, most of the population was opposed from the outset to a war launched by US imperialism.
The reality of confronting either a catastrophe or a disaster, Trump is lashing out with ever more deranged outbursts. In a flight of fancy, he claims that regime change has already happened! Then he says that regime change was never a goal, but he can ‘bomb Iran ‘back to the stone age’. The decapitation policy of assassination of part of the leadership of the regime has resulted in even more hardline elements leading the IRGC (Revolutionary Guards) which had been preparing for such a war for decades.
In the fog of war all parties lie and manoeuvre. Yet the idea that serious negotiation is taking place with the “new regime” and the White House, that agreement is close, does not seem to be evident by the continuation and accelerating of the war by both sides, and the strident rejection of Trump’s ‘15-point plan’ by the Iranian regime.
Significantly, the former CIA director, John Brennan, when asked in an interview about the negotiations, replied; “Well, I tend to believe Iran more than I do Donald Trump, because he could not acknowledge the truth even when he’s slapped in the face with it repeatedly.” Brennan continued, “And it’s clear that, you know he is flailing right now. He’s trying to figure out how he’s going to get out of this debacle that he has created”. The former director of the CIA exposes the depth of the crisis in the US and splits that exist amongst its ruling class.
Gulf states destabilised
The war has destabilised the previous “safe havens” of the Gulf states. The ability of the US to protect them is undermined. In these feudal autocratic dictatorships, a potentially explosive situation exists. Allowing US bases to operate and launch attacks from their territories against Iran has embroiled the Gulf states in the war and they are targeted by Iran. A Qatari oil tanker has been hit, along with attacks on Kuwait airport, and other targets in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Facing both ways the Saudi and other regimes are call for a “ceasefire” yet behind the scenes Saudia Arabia is calling for Trump “to finish the job” and is apparently considering getting involved directly.
These regimes are terrified of the prospect of a social explosion erupting from this crisis. Repression unleashed in the UAE and elsewhere has been brutal. They are particularly fearful of protests by the millions of foreign workers in these states. In the UAE, 88% of the population are non-nationals, including locals who are denied citizenship. The population has exploded from four million in 2004 to 11.3 million in 2024 – mostly foreign workers. In Bahrain, 53% of the population are non-nationals. In Saudi Arabia, out of a total workforce of 18 million and estimated 14 million are foreign nationals.
Trump’s desperation is reflected in his recent outburst illustrating the conflict that has intensified between Europe and the US. Italy, Spain, and France have closed airspace to US military flights involved in the war. Britain, under prime minister Keir Starmer, has now sent more troops and planes to the Gulf states. Hypocritically Starmer regards the war as “illegal” but allows the US to use British bases for “defensive purposes”. Yet in war “defense” is also part of “offensive” strategy.
Trump savages European powers
Yet this has not spared Starmer and Britain, along with France and other European powers, from being savaged by Trump. He thunders at Britain, France and others to “get your own oil”, because they have refused to join in his war. Trump and Rubio, once again, threaten to withdraw from NATO because it is a “toothless Tiger”. The Trump regime’s war on Iran, together with Netanyahu’s attacks, has left the US isolated globally. Its main rival China is gaining from the crisis, as is Putin’s regime in Russia.
At the same time, the Israeli regime is continuing its savage genocidal war against the Palestinian people. The Israeli parliament has adopted a new law allowing for the execution, by hanging, after a trial in a military court, of those accused of “terrorist attacks”. Yet this law only applies to Palestinians not Israeli Jews or settlers who carry out killings in the West Bank.
Having expanded its intervention in Lebanon up to the crucial Litani river, the Israeli government is now, in the words of Defense Minister Katz, repeating what it did in Rafah and Beir Hanoun districts of Gaza, and is destroying houses and villages. An Israeli government spokesman, Major Doron Spielman, summed up their approach, “Every home in Southern Lebanon, the Shiite homes, are command centres”.
Driving hundreds of thousands from their homes, the IDF is preparing for a permanent occupation south of the Litani river. This is part of Netanyahu’s plan for a ‘Greater Israel’. Isreal has recently seized control of western areas of Syria which are declared “security zones” or “area of interest”.
Millions on ‘No Kings’ marches
Trump is facing not only an international storm. Eight million took to the streets in ‘No Kings’ demonstrations throughout the US. The Republicans face the prospect of a major electoral defeat in the mid-term elections in November. Out of desperation they are preparing to attempt to rig the election process, especially with the proposed, ‘Save America’ Act that Trump is trying to get through the Congress. Political polarization and turmoil are certain in the run up to and following the elections. There are signs of increasing divisions within Trump’s MAGA movement.
But Trump will not simply walk away in this conflict. Should the crisis deepen at a certain stage there can be attempts to remove Trump, one way or another, although that would not be easy. A deep and most severe political and social crisis in the US for decades is unfolding.
These upheavals reflect the new age of conflict, polarization and crisis that global capitalism has entered. What is clear is that however the current war in West Asia is “concluded” there will be no peace for the masses of the region or globally if capitalism and imperialism exist. Global capitalism today is a system of horror without end. The need for the working class to build a political alternative to point a way out of the dead-end capitalism, with a socialist alternative, is more urgent than ever.