Polarization over the AfD … plays into the AfD’s hands
Die Linke must finally open a class front!
The election result in Saxony-Anhalt is a political earthquake that was long on the cards. It can only really come as a surprise in the details, but it was clear that the right-wing populist Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) would become the strongest force with over forty percent of the votes. Now the most complicated possible distribution of seats in the Magdeburg state parliament has emerged. This is because the BSW, a populist, anti-war yet ‘social-conservative’ and anti-migration party led by Sahra Wagenknecht, that split from Die Linke (the Left party) at the end of 2013, was able enter the state parliament.
As a result of the BSW being in the state parliament the AfD, with its own 39 deputies, would not have a simple majority in a third round of voting for who will lead the next government. But neither would a bloc of the conservative CDU, Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Die Linke (Left party) – as there would be a deadlock of 39 to 39 votes if the BSW abstains as it has announced it would. Therefore, it is to be expected that, over the next few weeks, there will be intense behind the scenes manoeuvring to win over defectors.
The AfD’s election victory is a middle finger directed at Friedrich Merz and his CDU/CSU-SPD federal government. In a situation where the established pro-capitalist parties have been mired in a deep crisis of legitimacy for years due to their neoliberal, pro-capitalist policies, the AfD right-wing populists led by Ulrich Siegmund were also able to capitalise on the overwhelming rejection of the massive cuts to social security systems and workers’ rights planned by Merz and Klingbeil. This is absurd, given that the AfD stands for policies that are just as hostile to workers and favour the rich and capitalists – yet it still scores highly in opinion polls on the issue of ‘social justice’, partly because it shamelessly propagates a form of social populism and presents itself as the ‘party of the little people’.
The AfD’s electoral successes are, above all, electoral defeats for the pro-capitalist establishment, whose policies of social cuts, price rises and support for war have allowed the AfD to grow so strong in the first place. Nevertheless, the trend continues whereby an increasing proportion of the AfD’s voters subjectively vote for the party based on its policies – ‘subjectively’ because it must be assumed that, unfortunately, many voters are not actually fully aware of these policies.
The election campaign in Saxony-Anhalt revolved entirely around the AfD. The polarisation centred on the question: for or against an AfD Minister-President. Only the BSW attempted to adopt a different stance by advocating for a non-partisan Minister-President whilst simultaneously seeking to build bridges with the AfD. Despite the split in the BSW’s Thuringia regional association just a few days before the election and the founding of the new party, ‘Thüringen. Gerecht’, by its former Thuringian regional chairwoman, Katja Wolf, the BSW managed to clear the five per cent threshold and can now become a kingmaker in Magdeburg. Yet once again, Wagenknecht’s party failed to deliver on what it had promised when it was founded: to take votes away from the AfD (2,000 former AfD voters switched to the BSW).
All the other parties had essentially one point on their agenda: to prevent an AfD government. The SPD and the Greens managed to secure seats in the state parliament for precisely this reason, and not because of growing support for their policies. CDU voters in particular (37,000), but also some former Left Party voters (5,000), switched their allegiance to these two parties in order to ensure they gained seats in the state parliament. The AfD was almost the sole beneficiary of the significant rise in voter turnout: with 170,000 votes from this group, it received almost twice as many votes from former non-voters as all the other parties combined.
Crisis of the system
The AfD’s victory is a reflection of the deep crisis facing the political system of capitalism that prevails in the Federal Republic – a parliamentary democracy which, for an ever-increasing number of working-class people, is being exposed as a sham democracy when, for example, social cuts are imposed that are clearly rejected by the majority of the population or, as in Berlin with regard to the expropriation of property companies, referendums are simply ignored. For many, voting for the AfD is a way of making it clear that, in their view, fundamental change is needed, yet they see no possibility of achieving anything through collective organisation and struggle against ‘those at the top’. Of course, the AfD primarily mobilises those sections of the population who harbour anti-migrant prejudices or racist attitudes, or who wish for an authoritarian state. But it would be wrong to view the AfD’s electoral success primarily as an ideological phenomenon rather than a social one. This also includes the fact that the AfD has succeeded in portraying itself as a party of peace, which wants to end the endless support for Ukraine and thereby pave the way for an end to the war.
The Left Party fails
The fact that the pro-capitalist establishment is being punished by voters is neither surprising nor, in itself, a cause for concern. The crucial question is: why, in such a situation, is Die Linke (The Left Party) not only achieving a lower percentage of the vote than in the last elections, but actually losing votes in absolute terms? Why can it not at least capitalise somewhat on the rejection of the federal government and people’s anger at the prevailing conditions, as was still the case in the last Bundestag election?
We would say: because Die Linke presented itself as part of the supposedly democratic camp comprising the CDU, FDP, SPD and the Greens, and because it did not unequivocally open up a second front in this election campaign – a class-based front between those at the top and us at the bottom, between capital and labour, between pro-rich and pro-worker policies. This is expressed particularly clearly by the campaign slogan ‘Home is for everyone’. An attempt was made to appeal to the right-wing camp using the wider concept of ‘home’, whilst at the same time promoting policies ‘for everyone’ instead of clearly stating that Die Linke pursues policies for wage earners and the socially disadvantaged, and against the rich and capitalists. And when asked whether Die Linke would help elect a conservative CDU Minister-President, the response was to make it clear that it could envisage a joint policy with the CDU (which is precisely what it means to make such an election conditional on policy terms), instead of saying: ‘In case of doubt, we will vote to prevent the election of an AfD Minister-President, but we will not engage in any political cooperation with the anti-social and pro-capitalist parties; instead, we will devote all our energy to organising resistance both against the right-wing populist, capitalist AfD and against a conservative, capitalist-led CDU government’ (For a detailed account of Sol’s proposals regarding voting behaviour following the elections, see here).
Die Linke lost in Saxony-Anhalt because it failed to present itself clearly as an independent, socialist force. The fact that there is greater potential for the party was demonstrated by Mustafa Gröner’s win of a direct mandate in Magdeburg and the result in the U18 elections (in which over 3,100 children and young people took part and in which Die Linke achieved over thirty per cent), but the party leadership fails to capitalise on this potential when it seeks to negotiate a common policy with the CDU rather than opposing the CDU.
Prospects
It remains to be seen how things will unfold. Even within the AfD, there are debates as to whether Ulrich Siegmund should stand for election as Minister-President at all, even though the party’s federal leadership expressly endorsed this on election night. However, it is also possible that the AfD will adopt a strategy aimed at bringing about early elections, in the hope that it will perform even better in such a scenario and secure an absolute majority. Whether this will succeed remains to be seen – it cannot be ruled out that there will be a long period during which the current government continues as a caretaker state government, because no new majorities can be formed.
It also remains to be seen what impact the election result will have on Friedrich Merz and his government. Should the CDU suffer further electoral defeats in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin in the upcoming elections over the next few weeks, the Chancellor will certainly find himself in a tight spot, and his resignation cannot be ruled out.
It would be disastrous if the leaderships of the trade unions and Die Liinke were to conclude from this possibility that they should wage the struggle against social cuts and the erosion of workers’ rights with less determination, in order to avoid new elections to the Bundestag, in which the AfD could emerge stronger. Instead, the struggle must be intensified through mass mobilisations and strikes and linked to the struggle against job losses. And Die Linke must establish itself as the party of this resistance, as the party of class struggle, and refrain from any rapprochement with the CDU/CSU, the SPD or the Greens.
Class struggle!
The AfD can be weakened in the medium term, if the working class is mobilised on the basis of social and economic class issues and Die Linke establishes itself in this process as an independent socialist class-based party. If the party leadership now concludes that it should, more than ever, support the supposedly democratic camp, it will only make the AfD stronger, and an AfD state government in Saxony-Anhalt and elsewhere would be only a matter of time.
The fear of such a scenario is understandable and well-founded. However, it should not be exaggerated either. An AfD state government would not be a fascist government capable of enforcing a policy of smashing the trade unions, the left and dismantling all democratic rights through the deployment of terrorist gangs on the streets and in neighbourhoods. It would, however, certainly pursue policies that would worsen living conditions for all wage earners, but above all for migrants and other minorities. It would also give a boost to the boot-wearing fascists and gangs of thugs that already exist. That is why such a government must be prevented, but not by means that will only strengthen the AfD.
Sol (the CWI in Germany) is calling on trade unions and Die Linke to focus all their efforts in the coming weeks on organising a ‘hot autumn’ of resistance against the federal government’s so-called pension ‘reform’, health insurance ‘reform’, longer working hours and cuts to housing benefit. If this happens, the AfD will also reveal its true colours to many workers and show which side it really stands on. However, this can only be a first step on the path towards truly militant trade unions and a militant, socialist class-based party. To achieve this, Sol supports the networking of militant colleagues within the trade unions and, within Die Linke, is involved in both the Anti-Capitalist Left (AKL) and the new Initiative for a Socialist Network (SoV).