The unleashing of the dogs of war once again on Iran by the rogue regimes of Trump and Netanyahu has opened the ‘gates of hell’ for the masses throughout the Middle East. The genocidal war waged against the Palestinian people in Gaza and increased repression and de-facto annexation of the West Bank has now been intensified as war rages against Iran. This embroils the Gulf states and the whole of the Middle East.
The mass protests which erupted in Iran at the turn of the year against the brutal, theocratic Iranian regime was savagely crushed by the dictatorship. Displaying heroic courage more protests broke out again at the universities. Afterwards, Trump, having assembled an armada, together with the Israeli Defence Force, launched an aerial bombardment, having, like last year, dragged out “peace talks” with the Iranian regime. All the while they were preparing to launch a military offensive. And their motive for this was what?
They care little about democratic rights and much less about the suffering of the Iranian people. Behind this military action is the clear objective of carrying through a regime change in Iran and forming a pliable Iranian regime. As the war has widened, the Israeli regime has re-launched its attacks on and put its troops back into Lebanon.
The real motive of the Trump and Netanyahu regimes is to reconfigure the Middle East. Netanyahu has a long-declared objective of establishing ‘Eretz Yisrael’ (a greater Israel), driving out the Palestinian masses, and securing regime change in Iran. This, together, with the aim of collaborating with compliant regimes in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, aims to establish a secure region for US imperial interests. In doing so, the rising challenge of China to US imperialism would be weakened.
Trump and Netanyahu seemed to have the delusion that they could repeat what was had done in Venezuela when Maduro was kidnapped. That is, cut off the figure head and work with a compliant regime – in the case of Venezuela it is sections of the Bolivarian regime – prepared to capitulate to Trump and US imperialist demands.
However, Iran is not Venezuela. The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and other key leaders of the regime, has not, at this stage, led to its collapse or sections of the regime switching allegiance, as happened in Venezuela. The killing of Khamenei has made him a martyr – a central element in Muslim Shia religion -in the eyes of supporters of the regime in Iran and amongst big section of the Muslim world.
The two grim reapers hope they can achieve regime change through missiles and bombs raining down on Iran. Some are promoting Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah, to head a new regime. Yet amongst many in Iran there is deep hostility towards the former regime of the Shah, who was overthrown in 1979.
Trump appealed to the Iranian masses to rise up as he launched missiles against cities throughout the country. What Trump wanted was for the Iranian people to be cannon fodder – to be later simply be cast aside. During a regional war such a development is now highly unlikely. No regime in history has simply been removed through aerial bombardment. Should the regime not be removed because of aerial attacks, Trump has now not ruled out the use of troops on the ground. Such a development would only deepen the crisis and have incendiary consequences in the US.
Forgetting the catastrophic experience of Iraq and Libya, when western imperialism intervened to overthrow the existing regimes, the US has no alternative or plan following the fall of the regime. Both Iraq and Libya were plunged into sectarian and ethnic conflict and became ‘failed states. Should the Iranian regime eventually implode, which is possible, a similar disaster could take place bringing more carnage. Upheaval and conflict would reverberate to an even greater degree around the Middle East.
This assault will be seen as an attack on the Muslim world and despite the reactionary character of the Iranian regime it will fuel an anti-imperialist mood in much of the ‘global south’. This can also lead to the strong possibility of a resurgence of reactionary Muslim fundamentalist organisations and revenge terrorist attacks internationally, which would deepen ethnic and religious divides in some countries.
A multifaceted crisis
The continuing bombardment by US imperialism and the Israeli regime, and counter attacks by the Iranian state on US forces in the Gulf States and other countries, has plunged global capitalism into a multifaceted global crisis. It threatens to provoke a major international economic crisis, pushing up the price of oil and gas. At one stage, the price of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) rose by over 50% following the closure of energy producing facilities in Qatar at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed.
Now the Straits of Hormuz has been closed to shipping. Three oil tankers were previously hit. This is potentially disastrous for global capitalism, as 20% of global crude oil shipments pass through the Straits. If the war lasts for any length of time, it will have a global impact. It will be potentially devastating for Asia, as 82-84% of oil supplies going through the Straits is destined for Asian markets, especially China and India. This can easily push India and others into recession, which will ripple through to Europe and elsewhere. Several EU countries have tilted towards Asia in trade deals recently, as they have sought more autonomy from the US under Trump. Reflecting this, China is reportedly now trying to pressurise the Iranian regime to re-open the Straits of Hormuz and is also demanding that the US, Israel and Iran halt the attacks. China relies on Iran for 13% of its crude oil imports. In total, 33% of China’s oil, and 25% of its gas imports pass through the Straits of Hormuz. Loosing this supply could push China towards closer relations with Putin, especially to secure oil supplies. Already Russia accounts for 20% of China’s crude oil imports. Arising from this conflict, China can bolster its position internationally, especially in some areas of the global south.
The military assault by Trump and Netanyahu has provoked further division and conflict between the ruling classes. It has also provoked polarised division within countries. In the US it will greatly increase the polarisation and division rocking US society. Big sections of the ruling class are now in conflict with Trumps rogue regime. Having fought the presidential election promising an end to US foreign intervention, a revolt by a section of Trumps MAGA base is underway. Opinion polls are pointing to only 27% of Americans supporting the attack on Iran. Following on from the mass movement in Minneapolis against the brutal deployment of thousands of ICE enforcement officers (a paramilitary state organisation, which used fascistic methods of repression, and which forced a retreat by Trump), the political and social crisis in the US has reached a turning point.
The multi-polar world conflicts are being aggravated and intensified as result of the launching of the war against Iran. In Europe, the EU is split over what position to adopt. Prime Minister Starmer in Britain initially refused the US forces using British military bases. Then he flip-flopped and agreed they could. Although this was not enough to keep Starmer safe from a slap from Trump, who dubbed him a “disappointment” and that he is not dealing with a “Churchill”.
German chancellor Merz declared that international law is now “irrelevant”. Others like Spain’s Prime Minister Sanchez oppose the war and have refused the US permission to use Spanish military bases. In response, Trump has declared that all trade with Spain will now be blocked.
The fact that Macron, Starmer and Merz issued their own statement on February 28th, which had no position on the US/Israeli attack, without the rest of the EU, reveals the divisions that are opening. Reflecting the rival national interests, German chancellor Merz, just before he travelled to meet Trump in Washington, declared that “International rules have relatively little effect – all the more so when violations carry few consequences”. Despite a poll in Germany showing that only 29% of Germans supported the US/Israeli attack, Merz added that, “Now is not the time to lecture our partners and allies.”
The growing rift between the US and Europe, and the increased drive to militarisation, is illustrated by France offering other European countries to come under its nuclear umbrella. There are reported negotiations of French “nuclear assets” being deployed in the Netherlands, Germany and Poland. If this takes place it will sharply increase the antagonism with Putin in Russia.
China’s role
A crucial element now in inter-imperialist global relations is the US countering the rising influence of China. Iran has been a crucial element in China’s geo-political strategy. Beyond the oil and gas shipped through the Straits of Hormuz, Iran serves as a part of one of three ‘land bridges’ to Europe. This is part of the ‘Belt and Road initiative’, including a direct rail link from Tehran and Xi’an, which opened in May 2025. The claim by the US to have destroyed the Iranian naval operations, cutting off its ability to check sea shipping routes, will affect China.
China and Russia, for their own reasons, have both stridently opposed what Trump has done. There have been major deepening trade ties, supply chain links, and economic interdependence between China and Asia, Latin America, Africa, and parts of Europe. A struggle for domination of supply chain routes is unfolding. This was a major component of Trump’s claim to take over Greenland and thereby control shipping lanes.
The emergence of a strengthened trade alliance in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) reflects the change balance of forces that is unfolding internationally. This is asserting itself more as a challenge to US imperialist domination. Within this bloc there are many divisions and internal contradictions and a lack of a coherent position on many issues. However, it does constitute part of a developing challenge to US imperialism. Trump, through the imposition of tariffs and other measures, would like to break the BRICS, and other blocs that may emerge. However, tariffs and other punitive measures will not be enough to halt the change in the balance of power globally which is taking place.
The war in Iran brings these historic changes into focus and forms a part of them. There are now major wars taking place – in the Middle East, Europe/Ukraine, and other major conflicts, such as between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Asia, and Sudan in Africa. Putin’s war in Ukraine is set to continue for a longer period.
There is an understandable fear amongst young people and others that the world is growing dangerously violent and even perhaps on the brink of a World War III. Yet modern warfare involving an all-out military conflict between the major imperialist powers today would likely lead to a nuclear Armageddon. This would obliterate the working class and poor and capitalism itself. This nightmare is not yet posed today. For this to take place the crushing of the working class and the coming to power of Bonapartist military dictatorships in at least some of the main imperialist countries would be necessary. This is not posed at this stage.
However, as we have seen rogue regimes and conflicts between the capitalist powers will result in major conflicts and wars in the new age of inter-imperialist and national conflict that now exists. The military manoeuvres undertaken by the Chinese regime after Trump unleashed his assault on Iran in March were intended as a warning. Should China conclude it is being cornered it could make some interventions to protect its strategic interests.
A socialist alternative to imperialist and capitalist war
The horrors unfolding globally are irresolvable so long as capitalism and imperialism exist. The solution lies in the hands of the working class through ending capitalism as a social system. The masses of the Middle East and internationally can have no trust in imperialism or any of the reactionary capitalist, feudal regimes in the region. Lessons must be drawn from the experience of 2011 when dictatorships in the Middle East and north Africa were overthrown by the masses but then ultimately replaced by new dictatorships. The working class through its organisations, which must be revived and rebuilt as necessary, need to take up the struggle to oppose all capitalist and imperialist wars and capitalist politicians.
We call for:
- Mass protests against capitalist and imperialist wars and interventions are needed. Trade unions and workers’ organisations should call protests in solidarity with the masses in the Middle East and in opposition to war.
- Strikes and other actions need to be prepared for by the trade unions.
- The bombings must stop and end the blood bath in the region. End the war! No war for oil!
- All imperialist forces out of the Middle East. Build an independent mass movement of the workers and poor in Iran and fight for a government of the workers’ and the poor that defends democratic rights and breaks with capitalism. Down with the Netanyahu’s government of death. No trust in imperialism nor any of the reactionary regimes in the region.
- Build a united struggle to establish a voluntary democratic socialist confederation of the Middle East that defends the democratic and national rights of all the peoples of the Middle East. For unity of the working people of the Middle East and internationally in a struggle against our common enemies – capitalism and imperialism. For socialism as opposed to capitalist and imperialist barbarism.