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South Africa
Socialist election campaign at full throttle

24/04/2014: Building a bridgehead to a new mass workers’ party

  South Africa

Bangladesh
One year on from Rana Plaza disaster

24/04/2014: Protest letter from Paul Murphy and other MEP’s

  Bangladesh

Scotland
Capitalist ‘Project Fear’ backfiring?

23/04/2014: The socialist case for independence

  Scotland

Chile
Socialism 2014 a success!

22/04/2014: First Santiago Socialism event organised by CWI in Chile

  Chile

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History of the Committee for a Workers’ International

21/04/2014: 40th anniversary of the founding of the CWI

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Sri Lanka
Provincial elections spike president’s plans

20/04/2014: Repression can provoke opposition

  Sri Lanka

China
Labour disputes soar

17/04/2014: 40,000 workers paralyse world’s largest sports shoe maker

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Greece
International anti-fascist conference “No pasaran!”

16/04/2014: Four thousand attend three-day event in Athens

  Greece

South Africa
Enthusiastic response for WASP ahead of May elections

15/04/2014: WASP campaigning material available on pdf

  South Africa

India
Massive election process could end in turmoil

14/04/2014: New party expresses, but cannot solve, major discontents

  India

Cyprus
Austerity sees living standards fall back 40 years

11/04/2014: One year of the right wing Anastasiades government

  Cyprus

 Iranian nuclear talks
Hypocrisy abounds

10/04/2014: Paul Murphy MEP

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Britain
Dave Nellist on BBC outlining TUSC’s socialist policies

10/04/2014: Trade union and socialist coalition (TUSC) candidate count reaches 476 for May local election

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Taiwan
Occupation of parliament ends after 23 days

10/04/2014: What are the lessons of the island’s ‘sunflower movement’?

  Taiwan

Hungary
Election highlights lack of Left challenge

09/04/2014: Declining vote for ruling Fidész party; neo-fascist Jobbik picks up 20% as false ‘alternative’

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Ukraine crisis exploited by multinational fracking lobby

09/04/2014: Oppose the pro-big business EU/ US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership!

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Belgium
50,000 join ETUC Brussels demonstration

08/04/2014: Protesters’ radical mood

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Britain
One in ten council seats will have TUSC candidate

07/04/2014: No-cuts election challenge grows

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Review
Net political impact

06/04/2014: To Save Everything, Click Here • By Evgeny Morozov •

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Belgium
The rise of the PTB/PvdA

05/04/2014: Recent polls confirm a probable electoral breakthrough for the Workers’ Party of Belgium (PTB/PvdA).

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First victory for students at University of Cocody

04/04/2014: An important step to push the struggle against neo-liberal policies further

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Canada
Port of Vancouver truckers’ strike wins significant gains

03/04/2014: After bosses’ seen off - unions must defend their right to strike!

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Government punished in local elections

02/04/2014: Far right gains highlight need for strong fighting left opposition

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Turning back the wheel of history

01/04/2014: Second constituent assembly election – a shift to the right

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WASP manifesto launch success!

01/04/2014: On Saturday 29 March the Workers and Socialist Party launched its 2014 election manifesto at a rally in Katlehong, Gauteng

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Taiwan
Half a million on the streets against President Ma

31/03/2014: Demonstrators call for trade pact to be withdrawn and for president to step down

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US
Winning $15 an hour in Seattle

31/03/2014: A socialist strategy

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Socialist Party local election gains

31/03/2014: Vote for SP can be the basis for a mass struggle against cuts

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Hypocrisy of Irish Govt & EU on Ukraine

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New political winds affect CWI Congress

28/03/2014: Optimistic Rättvisepartiet Socialisterna prepares for elections

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Euro crisis

The latest temporary fix

www.socialistworld.net, 19/09/2012
website of the committee for a workers' international, CWI

The problems of the eurozone, rooted in the clash of national interests and the rivalries of capitalist leaders, remain as intractable as ever.

Lynn Walsh, editor of Socialism Today (magazine of the Socialist Party (CWI England & Wales)

Mario Draghi’s announcement that the European Central Bank will embark on the unlimited buying of eurozone bonds to support debtor governments like Spain and Italy aroused a new wave of europhoria. There was also relief that Germany’s constitutional court rejected a move to block Germany’s participation in the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent bailout fund. In reality, however, the ECB’s intervention is another temporary fix that will, at best, buy some more time. The problems of the eurozone, rooted in the clash of national interests and the rivalries of capitalist leaders, remain as intractable as ever. Strikes in Greece with preparations for a 24-hour general strike on 24 September and massive demonstrations in Portugal and Spain (15 September), are some of the signs of a stormy autumn. LYNN WALSH reports.

MARIO DRAGHI HAS been hailed by eurozone leaders as ‘Super-Mario’, saviour of the eurozone. At the end of July, he promised that the ECB would “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro as a stable currency”. This implied that it would buy the bonds of floundering governments, particularly Spain and Italy, in order to reduce their borrowing costs. Spanish and Italian bonds had risen above 7%, to levels considered ‘unsustainable’. The high interest rates reflect a premium to cover ‘convertibility risk’, financial jargon for exit from the euro.

This article was first published in Socialism Today, no 162

It has taken Draghi several months to work out a package and overcome internal opposition within the ECB, particularly from the German representative, and win the support of chancellor Angela Merkel, who fears an electoral backlash within Germany. In the event, Draghi’s measures were approved by the ECB board with only Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank, in opposition.

According to Draghi, the ECB is now committed to give “unlimited support” to governments like Spain and Italy which are finding it very difficult to raise loans on financial markets, except at punitive interest rates. In reality, however, the new measures are quite limited. The ECB will buy Spanish and Italian bonds on the secondary bond market (it is prohibited by its constitution from buying bonds directly from eurozone governments). Moreover, the ECB will buy only short-term bonds with maturities of three years or less. This means that governments will be on a short rein.

An even more onerous restriction is the ECB’s insistence that it will extend support only if the governments concerned apply for assistance to the troika – the ECB, European Commission and International Monetary Fund – which means that they will be subjected to inspection and bail-out conditions imposed by the troika.

The conditions will be “strict and effective”, according to Draghi. This may prove politically difficult for the governments concerned. In Spain, prime minister Mariano Rajoy previously gained support from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to stabilise Spanish banks, without accepting strict conditions (though this latitude is being challenged by some eurozone governments). At the moment, he is avoiding any suggestion that his government will apply to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), designed to take over from the EFSF and now approved by the German constitutional court, for support on that basis.

Strict conditions will inevitably mean further austerity packages. Spain and Italy are already in recession (the whole eurozone is stagnant) and further austerity measures could push some of these economies into another deep slump – which would result in a slump in government revenues and an increase in deficits (despite spending cuts).

Protest in Spain, 15 September 2012

Draghi’s promise of ‘unlimited support’ for vulnerable governments rapidly resulted in a decline in bond rates. Spanish ten-year bonds, for instance, dropped from 7.6% to 5.7% (still much higher than the 1.5% that Germany pays on ten-year bonds). However, the ECB package is far from being a permanent solution. It is yet another temporary eurozone fix. The Financial Times describes the move as “an audacious gamble”, with no guarantee of success.

Draghi’s measures will operate in conjunction with the new permanent rescue agency, the ESM, which will have €500bn capital. (Most of the EFSF funds have been already used to bail out Greece, Portugal and Ireland, and to fund the recapitalisation of Spanish banks – it has only around €120bn left.) It will still be difficult, if not impossible, for the ECB to act as a ‘lender of last resort’, a fully-blown central bank comparable with the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. The ECB cannot assist to governments through buying their bonds directly. At the same time, the ESM will almost certainly be barred by the objections of the German constitutional court from borrowing money on the basis of its capital in order to support eurozone governments. Any ESM bail-out packages will, as with the EFSF, have to come from its own funds and be dispersed on the basis of more and more austerity.

German court ruling

GERMANY’S CONSTITUTIONAL court rejected (12 September) an application for an injunction to prevent the German government ratifying the ESM. This legal move was supported by around 37,000 petitioners and, according to opinion polls, backed by 53% of Germans. A legal veto on Germany’s support for the ESM would have detonated a major crisis for the eurozone, in spite of the recent moves by the ECB.

Judges of the German constitutional court

The constitutional court, however, made a very conditional ruling. It limits Germany’s participation in the ESM to the current €190bn (approximately a third share of the funding). The government is barred from making any further contributions without the support of both houses of parliament. The fine print of the ruling, moreover, raises questions about the future role of the ESM. It questions whether it would be constitutional for the German government to support the ESM raising loans on the basis of its €500bn capital in order to buy bonds directly from eurozone governments. The court warns against the German government undertaking any open-ended commitment to support debtor countries.

These legal caveats show that Merkel’s victory on this point is yet another temporary fix. The court refused a temporary injunction but will be considering the full case in the coming months. While it seems unlikely that it will completely veto the ESM, the constitutional court, on the basis of its interpretation of Germany’s basic law, may impose further restrictions – which could severely limit the role of the ESM. Many of the eurozone leaders, as well as sections of big business, are hoping that the ESM can, at least partially, play the role of a ‘lender of last resort’ – supplying capital to shaky governments on the basis of the mutualisation of their debts.

This idea, however, is bitterly opposed by some sections of Merkel’s own party, as well as by the right-wing, business press. They see it as an unwanted burden on German capitalism, and potentially a slippery slope to hyper-inflation. Faced with this opposition, Merkel has to move very cautiously, approving just enough intervention to avoid a collapse of the eurozone, but never acting decisively enough to resolve the fundamental problems. George Soros, a strong supporter of the euro, recently challenged Merkel: “lead” (that is, underwrite the fiscal integration of the eurozone), or “leave” (and let the others proceed). A German exit, however, would mean the end, or at least the beginning of the end, of the euro.

Convergence or divergence?

THE DEVELOPMENT OF the euro was intended to accelerate the convergence of the states making up the European Union, with a single market and a borderless financial system. Instead, the euro has become a vehicle of crisis, bringing divergence and disintegration rather than convergence.

When the euro was introduced, borrowing costs for eurozone members were more or less equalised. In 2009, the Greek government had to pay only about two percentage points more than the German government. The difference is now over 20 percentage points. Low-cost borrowing was at the root of many of the current problems. Cheap credit was used to fuel property booms in countries like Spain and Ireland, and in Greece allowed for a massive increase in public expenditure while the corrupt tax system failed to produce sufficient revenue to cover spending. This opened up a massive divergence between creditor countries (dominated by Germany, the most powerful eurozone state) and debtor countries.

During the boom before 2007-08, the banks were the most globalised sector of capitalism. Now they have retrenched behind national borders. For instance, there has been a sharp fall in cross-border lending in the interbank market (from 60% to 40% of total lending). This has created a severe credit squeeze which, in addition to austerity measures, is pushing most of the eurozone economies into recession.

Private capital flows have been replaced by cash from the ECB in one form or another. For instance, banks in Greece and other countries have been forced to go to their national central banks under the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) programme. Many are buying their government’s bonds to keep them afloat. Under the ELA, the national central banks are able to go to the ECB for loans. This is, in fact, a backdoor way of the ECB financing government borrowing. It is estimated that the Spanish banks have benefitted from €400bn loans from the ECB, while Italy has €360bn. The overall net flow of private and public funds from Germany to other eurozone countries, mainly in the south, is around €700bn.

Instead of speeding up unification of the eurozone, the actual operation of the euro has increased financial fragmentation, widened social and economic differences, and stimulated growing opposition to the EU and the eurozone. Merkel and other leaders of the creditor countries have stridently opposed the idea of massive financial transfers to the weaker, ‘peripheral’ countries. Yet transfers have actually taken place on a massive scale. Lombard Street Research estimates that cash supports for the budgets of Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy will amount to at least €1.25 trillion during 2012-15, and could even be as high as €2.4 trillion.

In public, eurozone leaders proclaim that the EU will continue marching towards ‘ever closer union’. The euro is ‘irreversible’, and they will go to the end to defend it. But the continued economic crisis is fuelling popular opposition, inflaming nationalistic trends and strengthening separatist movements, as in Catalonia, for instance.

Barcelona, 11 September 2012

In June, at the EU summit meeting, eurozone leaders raised grandiose plans for advance towards greater unity (while, as usual, making very limited progress on the current crisis). However, moves towards greater unity, especially the establishment of a fiscal union which would have decisive control over the budgets of member governments, would require protracted negotiations, and approval by the majority of EU/eurozone governments. In some countries, it would require referendums to approve new treaties. Given the clash of national interests and the massive public opposition to further integration, this is a utopian project.

Immediately following Draghi’s announcement that the ECB was ready to buy ‘unlimited’ eurozone government bonds and the German constitutional court ruling, the EU Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, called for the EU to evolve into a “federation of nation states”. The problem of ‘sharing sovereignty’ between the national states, however, was highlighted by the reaction to Barroso’s announcement of plans for an EU banking union. This would mean the ECB assuming supervisory and regulatory powers over Europe’s 6,000 banks. Merkel responded by saying that Germany supports supervision only over major banks and would not accept the inclusion of small and medium banks. The British government, on the other hand, calls for all banks great and small to be included, but only those in the eurozone!

Spain’s deepening crisis

THE ECB’S OFFER of support poses a dilemma for Rajoy in Spain. The ECB will only support Spanish government bonds if the government applies for a rescue package – which would mean strict conditions, inspections by the troika or the IMF alone, and new austerity measures.

Since the landslide victory of the Popular Party, the government’s popularity has slumped. There has been a continuous wave of mass demonstrations and strikes against Rajoy’s €65bn package of cuts and new taxes. Moreover, Rajoy faces ever rising demands for increased autonomy from Spain’s semi-autonomous regions, particularly Catalonia. At the same time, they are demanding additional rescue packages from the central government (between €10-18bn). The strongest demand comes from Catalonia: there was a massive demonstration of up to two million on 11 September demanding ‘fiscal sovereignty’ as a step towards independence. The Catalan nationalist leaders want to form a new state within the EU, but the movement for separation will undoubtedly provoke a crisis for the Spanish ruling class.

Rajoy faces regional elections in Galicia and the Basque country, and may try to postpone any decision on ECB funding until after they are over. Meanwhile, the economy is sliding deeper into recession, with unemployment above 25%. In the first half of this year around €220bn flowed out of Spain’s banks, equivalent of about a fifth of GDP. Even with support for the banks from the EFSF funds (up to €100bn) the Spanish government may face a funding crisis in the next few months.

In fact, while support was agreed in principle, several eurozone governments (including Germany) are now raising objections. This support, they say, has to be part of the establishment of an EU banking union – but there is already a conflict over this. As so often in the eurozone, lifeboats launched with a fanfare of trumpets run aground even before they can leave the harbour.

In Portugal, meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets (15 September) in the country’s biggest ever anti-austerity protest. This upsurge of activity was triggered by a move to increase workers’ social security contributions – while cutting the bosses’ by the same amount.

Hundreds of thousands took to the streets in Portugal, 15 September 2012

Preparing for a Greek exit

MERKEL HAS RECENTLY launched a ‘charm offensive’ in an effort to repair relations with Greece, sending one of her junior ministers, Hans-Joachim Fuchtel, as an emissary. His message was that the German government empathised with the plight of the Greek people. Moreover, the Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, was invited to Berlin, where Merkel proclaimed that she wanted Greece to stay in the euro: “We will do what it takes to solve the problem in Greece”. At the same time, however, the parliamentary leader of Merkel’s party, the CDU, Volker Kauder, proclaimed that a Greek exit “would not be a problem for the euro” because sufficient measures were in place to prevent contagion spreading to other weak economies in the eurozone. (International Herald Tribune, 25 August) Moreover, there is no relaxation of Germany’s demand for further, savage austerity measures (currently, the troika are demanding another €13.5bn of cuts as the price for the €173bn bail-out package).

In any case, the Greek people are hardly fooled by German government propaganda. When Fuchtel landed in Greece he was confronted with posters reading: ‘Fuchtel, you’re not wanted – No subjugation’. A passer-by commented: “I don’t see how this is different from the Nazi occupation and the lackey Greek government”. (International Herald Tribune, 10 September)

While Merkel proclaims that Greece will stay in the euro, big-business leaders are not convinced. Many companies are drawing up detailed contingency plans to deal with the possible exit. “Bank of America Merrill Lynch has looked into filling trucks with cash and sending them over the Greek border so that clients can continue to pay local employees and suppliers in the event that money is unobtainable”. (Nelson Schwartz, Planning For Greece’s Euro Exit, Just In Case, International Herald Tribune, 4 September) Some companies have reprogrammed their computers so that they will be ready to handle a new Greek currency. JP Morgan Chase “has already created new accounts for a handful of corporate giants that are reserved for a new drachma in Greece, or whatever currency might succeed the euro in other countries”.

Transnational companies and their advisers are trying to work out what to do in the event of a prolonged bank holiday (during which the banks could be shut for some time) and in the event of capital controls which limited the movement of cash in and out of the country. An executive of Bank of America Merrill Lynch said: “Now… contingency planning is focussed on three primary scenarios – a single-country exit, a multi-country exit and a breakup of the eurozone in its entirety”. The same article also reports that central banks, as well as the German finance ministry, have been planning for the possibility of a Greek exit, but under conditions of complete secrecy.

Even without further general strikes, mass demonstrations and other forms of mass protest, the troika’s neo-liberal programme for Greece would not work. Austerity measures have already provoked a deep slump in the economy, and yet more savage measures will accelerate the disintegration of Greek society. The level of debt repayment being forced on the country will prove unsustainable. In reality, the resistance of the Greek working class will continue. While the coalition government’s leaders were drawing up yet another (€11.5bn) cuts package (11 September), there was a public-sector strike involving teachers, hospital doctors, and local government workers, and there are plans for a 24-hour general strike on 24 September.

A Greek exit is inevitable, only the timing is in doubt. Moreover, although accounting for only about 2% of eurozone GDP, the departure of Greece would almost certainly trigger a wider fragmentation of the eurozone. The financier George Soros recognises that the eurozone crisis is endangering the EU (and, we can say, the whole world economy): “If [the euro] falls apart, Europe will be worse off than before it started”. (Financial Times, 10 September)



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NEWS

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24/04/2014, Socialistworld.net:
Urgent solidarity needed

South Africa: Socialist election campaign at full throttle
24/04/2014, Workers and Socialist Party (WASP):
Building a bridgehead to a new mass workers’ party

Bangladesh: One year on from Rana Plaza disaster
24/04/2014, Socialistworld.net:
Protest letter from Paul Murphy and other MEP’s

Chile: Socialism 2014 a success!
22/04/2014, Socialismo Revolucionario (CWI in Chile) reporters:
First Santiago Socialism event organised by CWI in Chile

Sri Lanka: Provincial elections spike president’s plans
20/04/2014, Siritunga Jayasuriya, Secretary of United Socialist Party (CWI Sri Lanka):
Repression can provoke opposition

China: Labour disputes soar
17/04/2014, chinaworker.info reporters:
40,000 workers paralyse world’s largest sports shoe maker

Nigeria: Bomb explosions in Abuja - more evidence of the failure of capitalist government
16/04/2014, Segun Sango, Socialist Party Nigeria National Chairperson:
For democratic self-defence committees

Greece: International anti-fascist conference “No pasaran!”
16/04/2014, Sebastian Forster (CWI Germany) and Elin Gauffin (CWI Sweden):
Four thousand attend three-day event in Athens

South Africa: Enthusiastic response for WASP ahead of May elections
15/04/2014, Socialistworld.net:
WASP campaigning material available on pdf

India: Massive election process could end in turmoil
14/04/2014, Clare Doyle (CWI international Secretariat):
New party expresses, but cannot solve, major discontents

Cyprus: Austerity sees living standards fall back 40 years
11/04/2014, Athina Kariati, New Internationalist Left (CWI in Cyprus):
One year of the right wing Anastasiades government

Iranian nuclear talks: Hypocrisy abounds
10/04/2014, :
Paul Murphy MEP

Britain: Dave Nellist on BBC outlining TUSC’s socialist policies
10/04/2014, :
Trade union and socialist coalition (TUSC) candidate count reaches 476 for May local election

Hungary: Election highlights lack of Left challenge
09/04/2014, Sonja Grusch and Tilman M. Ruster:
Declining vote for ruling Fidész party; neo-fascist Jobbik picks up 20% as false ‘alternative’

Environment: Ukraine crisis exploited by multinational fracking lobby
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Belgium: 50,000 join ETUC Brussels demonstration
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Protesters’ radical mood

Review: Net political impact
06/04/2014, Ben Robinson, Socialist Party (CWI in England & Wales) published in Socialism Today:
To Save Everything, Click Here • By Evgeny Morozov •

Ivory Coast: First victory for students at University of Cocody
04/04/2014, CWI in Ivory Coast:
An important step to push the struggle against neo-liberal policies further

Canada: Port of Vancouver truckers’ strike wins significant gains
03/04/2014, Socialist Alternative Reporter, Vancouver:
After bosses’ seen off - unions must defend their right to strike!

France: Government punished in local elections
02/04/2014, Gauche Revolutionnaire (CWI in France) reporters:
Far right gains highlight need for strong fighting left opposition

South Africa: WASP manifesto launch success!
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On Saturday 29 March the Workers and Socialist Party launched its 2014 election manifesto at a rally in Katlehong, Gauteng

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31/03/2014, CWI reporters in Taipei:
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CWI Comment and Analysis

ANALYSIS

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23/04/2014, Philip Stott, Socialist Party Scotland:
The socialist case for independence

CWI: History of the Committee for a Workers’ International
21/04/2014, Socialistworld.net:
40th anniversary of the founding of the CWI

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Nepal: Turning back the wheel of history
01/04/2014, Senan, CWI:
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US: Winning $15 an hour in Seattle
31/03/2014, Patrick Ayers, Socialist Alternative, USA:
A socialist strategy

Spain: A million march for dignity in Madrid
26/03/2014, Angel Morano, Socialismo Revolucionario (CWI in Spain):
22M: A before and after moment for the class struggle

Taiwan: Ma government rocked by mass protests and occupation of parliament
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Bosnia-Herzegovina: Mass protests - The first flowers of spring
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What programme should the Left advocate?

Britain: After Bob Crow and Tony Benn
24/03/2014, Peter Taaffe, from Socialism Today (No.177, April 2014), monthly magazine of the Socialist Party (CWI England & Wales):
Mourn the loss, fight for the future

Scotland: Unions and the socialist case for independence
23/03/2014, John McInally, national vice-president of the Public and Commercial Services union (personal capacity):
Aruging a independent, working class position

Ukraine: Crimea breaks away to join Russia
18/03/2014, Niall Mulholland, CWI:
Tensions between powers worsen

Australia: Socialist Party playing key role in fight against East-West tunnel
13/03/2014, Mel Gregson and Stephen Jolly, Socialist Party (CWI in Australia), Melbourne:
Campaign brings public transport to forefront of political debate

Bosnia Herzegovina: Mass protests of working people and youth show the way forward
13/03/2014, CWI Leaflet text:
Working people stir to end poverty, joblessness, corruption and ethnic divisions!

Socialist perspectives for Aotearoa / New Zealand
09/03/2014, CWI Aotearoa / New Zealand:
The world and New Zealand in crisis

International Women’s Day 2014
07/03/2014, Clare Doyle (Committee for a Workers’ International):
Fighting austerity and oppression world-wide

Venezuela: A year after Chavez’s death
06/03/2014, By Gabriela Sanchez (CWI Venezuela).:
Commemorations in context of new crisis

Ukraine: Russian troops take up positions throughout Crimea
04/03/2014, CWI Reporters:
Tensions deepen between Western powers and Moscow

Greece: Still in the eye of the storm
26/02/2014, Interview with Andros Payiatsos, Xekinima (CWI in Greece) published in Socialism Today:
From the outside, it can appear there’s a certain pause in the struggle in Greece. Is this true?

Ukraine: Bloodshed in Kiev
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What lies behind the Ukraine crisis?

Venezuela: An analysis of 12F
19/02/2014, By Gabriela Sanchez- SR Venezuela:
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Pakistan: Negotiating peace
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Government/Taliban talks begin - But where will they go?

South Africa: The end of Cosatu?
17/02/2014, WASP (Workers and Socialist Party) Reporters, S Africa:
Time for a new socialist trade union federation

Greece: The fascist threat
08/02/2014, Christina Ziakka, Xekinima (CWI Greece) - translated by Amalia Loizidou. First published in Socialism Today:
Deep economic crisis, savage austerity and social upheaval have polarised Greek society.

South Africa: After NUMSA’s Congress
04/02/2014, Workers And Socialist Party (WASP) statement:
Seize the historic opportunity of the 2014 elections